Outcome of Dublin Airport passenger cap row will offer insight into climate resolve

The increasingly bitter row over the Dublin Airport passenger cap is a microcosm of wider, deeper tensions playing out across Ireland’s economy, many of which will ultimately arrive at the door of consumers.
This is because it is an intersection between economic forces, consumer demand and climate pressures.
As Barry O’Halloran outlines in his extensive report this week, the cap limits the number of passengers that can use Dublin Airport to 32 million per year. It was imposed as a planning condition for building the second terminal in 2007 and the extension of Terminal 1.
It was not designed to curb emissions. Rather it was a condition sought by Fingal County Council to limit pressure on the roads around the airport.
Fast forward 17 years; through a spectacular economic crash and a pandemic that shrivelled air passengers to a mere 7.4 million per annum, and last year 31,908,471 passengers passed through the two terminals, right at the edge of the limit.
Ryanair and Aer Lingus have found common cause opposing the cap, warning over more expensive airfares, a hit to tourism and a loss of connectivity for an island economy. Ryanair’s chief Michael O’Leary has warned it could see fares to Dublin this Christmas reach €500 one way as “reduced seat capacity fills”.
Dublin Airport Authority also wants the cap removed and has applied to Fingal County Council to increase it to 40 million per annum.
With an election in the air, and cost of living pressures central in the minds of many voters, the Government has largely kept its head. Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan has recused himself from what he says is a planning matter. Taoiseach Simon Harris wants the cap lifted but has not intervened.
The issue will most likely be settled in the courts – possibly at European level – where most likely it will be argued on primarily economic grounds.
The shape of any resolution will tell a lot about how serious Ireland (and potentially Europe) is about balancing short-term economic objectives with goals to reduce greenhouse gases.
There has been little discussion to date of how a higher passenger cap would align with a goal to halve Ireland’s transport emissions by 2030. Research from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) shows aviation was the transport sector with the fastest rising emissions.
Flying a record number of passengers through Dublin last year required a record volume of jet kerosene: 1.36 billion litres were used in Ireland last year, up 12.7 per cent on 2022.
While Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions fell to a three-decade low last year, emissions from transport were almost unchanged.
It is notable that even the metric used to discuss how to measure activity at the airport is passenger numbers, an economic measure rather than, for example, tonnes of carbon emitted.
An insight into the thinking of the Irish airline industry on climate is offered by writer Trevor White this weekend, who attended the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) conference last month. There, Donal Moriarty of Aer Lingus and Kenny Jacobs of Dublin Airport Authority were interviewed about the cap.
White reports Moriarty described the passenger cap as “environmentally detrimental” and said it needed to be lifted to ensure Aer Lingus could grow and invest in new technology aircraft and sustainable aviation fuel.
There is little dispute over the need for new technology and its role in potentially limiting emissions. However, the International Air Transport Association estimates “that Sustainable Aviation Fuel could contribute around 65 per cent of the reduction in emissions needed by aviation to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050″.
That is 26 years away. In the meantime demand is driving air passenger numbers to new records. For context, air passengers through Dublin have almost tripled in the 26 years to 2024.
White closes with this point.
“One day, we will have a serious conversation about responsible ambition, and about the necessity of cutting air travel, which is the only way to significantly reduce the impact of aviation on our climate in the short term.
“It’s a serious conversation because we live on an island; because tourism is our largest indigenous industry; and because climate change represents a grave and urgent threat to the future of our species.”
Elsewhere there is lots to enjoy this weekend. Sheila Wayman delves into the world of DNA testing, where curiosity has the potential to create unexpected consequences and unleash an emotional tornado.
“Anyone considering doing a DNA test needs to be aware that surprises can happen,” says professional genetic genealogist Dr Maurice Gleeson, a retired medical doctor. “Some find out that they have an unknown half-sibling. Some men find out that they had a child they never knew about. Others discover that they were adopted, and that the people they know as their parents are not their biological parents.”
Elon Musk is the focus for Mark O’Connell this weekend, who writes that “we can learn a lot about our world and its various afflictions by simply observing its richest living person”.
“Look at this man, who has more money than anyone else on the planet, and who is therefore, by the crudest of material metrics, the most successful person alive. What sort of case does he present for this system that has elevated him to a position of maximal eminence?”
Sally Hayden continues her reporting on the ground in Lebanon on the impact on civilians of Israeli attacks. “The atmosphere was quiet, but not calm, in the village of Ain el Delb, rescue operations having wrapped up the day before. Just over a week earlier, an apartment building was levelled by Israeli missile strikes, killing at least 45 people. That not every victim had been found was suggested by the painful smell hanging over the site, still scattered with family photos, stuffed toys, clothing and other mementos of the dead.”
With election date speculation at fever pitch, Harry McGee looks at the growing trend of broadcasters providing political parties with instantly recognisable “names” for election.
The latest in this list is Gráinne Seoige, who caused a stir when she announced she would be contesting Fianna Fáil’s Galway West selection convention in September. A household name, a well-known national broadcaster and now a bona fide celebrity candidate.
McGee notes“Seoige commands attention, even though it has been more than a decade since she was at the summit of Irish broadcasting, when she had her own afternoon show on RTÉ.”
There is also extensive sports coverage this weekend, with reaction to and analysis of Leinster’s comprehensive defeat of Munster in front of more than 80,000 fans, a new record for a URC club match. In his match report, Getty Thornley says: “Munster recovered well from an early triple whammy to retreat from Dublin with some pride, albeit they looked a bit beaten up ahead of their impending trip to South Africa, with a battery of HIAs, bumps and bruised bodies, and all manner of disruption to their frontrow.”
In his analysis of the match, Malachy Clerkin notes that Munster should not have been surprised by Leinster’s early attacking prowess, nor their own recent habit of surrendering early tries. He also reports on the post-match reaction from Munster coach Graham Rowntree.
This evening there will be coverage and analysis from Ireland’s meeting with Greece.
In this week’s On the Money newsletter, Dominic Coyle looks at the charges many AIB, BoI and PTSB customers aren’t aware of and how to cut them. You can sign up here to receive the newsletter straight to your inbox every Friday.
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